Calculator
Miner hash rate
Miner category
Calculating
Share of network
Calculating
BTC/year estimate
Calculating
USD/year estimate
Calculating
Before energy and fees
Poisson probability
Chance of finding at least one block
| Period | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
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Calculator Context
How solo mining odds are calculated
Bitcoin solo mining means your miner tries to find a valid block without sharing rewards through a pool. If you find a block, you receive the full block subsidy and transaction fees, but the probability depends on your hash rate compared with the full Bitcoin network.
Difficulty controls how many hashes are expected before a valid block appears. The expected hashes per block are difficulty × 2^32, so higher network difficulty pushes individual odds lower.
This calculator uses Poisson probability: P = 1 - e^(-λ), where λ is the selected time period divided by your expected time to find a block. Results are estimates, not financial advice, and actual mining outcomes are random.
Bitcoin mining odds FAQ
Solo mining probability questions
How do I calculate Bitcoin solo mining odds?
Enter your miner hash rate in GH/s, TH/s, PH/s, or EH/s. The calculator estimates expected block discovery time and the probability of finding at least one Bitcoin block over common time periods.
Why does Bitcoin difficulty matter?
Bitcoin difficulty controls how many hashes are expected before a valid block is found. Higher difficulty means lower solo mining odds for the same hash rate.
Can I compare ASIC miners and mining farms?
Yes. The unit selector and presets support small GH/s entries, TH/s ASIC and BitAxe home miners, PH/s mining farms and rentals, and EH/s industrial-scale scenarios.
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How to Get Started Mining Bitcoin
Mining can be simple with a small and quiet desktop ASIC miner like a BitAxe. Start small and learn the basics, then you can grow your farm as you see fit. Electricity, WiFi, and a Bitcoin wallet are basically all you need to get started and on your way to playing the Bitcoin block reward lottery.
Check out our getting started guides.